AI Generated Summary
- The ongoing negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) are designed to unlock new commercial gains, lower tariffs, and facilitate smoother market access for Canadian goods and services.
- As one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, India is set to increase its imports even further as its refining capacity expands in the second half of 2025.
- At the heart of this opportunity lies India, a nation whose economic ascent and demographic heft make it an indispensable partner for Canada’s future prosperity.
As the G7 summit in Canada unfolds, the world’s attention is drawn to the shifting dynamics of global trade and diplomacy. For Canada, the summit is more than a gathering of leading economies—it’s a pivotal moment to recalibrate its international partnerships. At the heart of this opportunity lies India, a nation whose economic ascent and demographic heft make it an indispensable partner for Canada’s future prosperity.
India: The World’s Fourth-Largest Economy and Rising
India’s economic story is nothing short of remarkable. In 2025, India is set to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, surpassing Japan, with a projected nominal GDP of $4.19 trillion. This rapid ascent is not just a matter of numbers; it signals the emergence of a vast, youthful, and increasingly affluent consumer base. For Canadian businesses, this translates into an unparalleled market opportunity—one that few other countries can match.
A Booming Market for Canadian Agriculture
India’s population of over 1.4 billion is not only growing but becoming more urban and health-conscious. This demographic shift is driving demand for diverse and high-quality food products. Canadian agricultural exports—especially canola oil and pulses—are well-positioned to benefit. Canada is already a major supplier of pulses to India, and while tariffs and non-tariff barriers persist, the potential for growth is immense. Eliminating trade barriers on products like lentils could result in a 147% increase in exports over five years. Similarly, canola oil, promoted as a healthy alternative, has significant room to expand in India’s edible oil market, which is increasingly receptive to premium and health-oriented products.
Trade Diversification Amid U.S. Tensions
Canada’s trade relationship with the United States, while robust, has been tested by recent protectionist policies and shifting geopolitical winds. India offers a vital counterbalance—a pathway to diversify trade and reduce reliance on a single market. The ongoing negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and the Early Progress Trade Agreement (EPTA) are designed to unlock new commercial gains, lower tariffs, and facilitate smoother market access for Canadian goods and services. In a world where supply chain resilience and market diversification are strategic imperatives, India stands out as Canada’s most promising partner.
Energy Security: Alberta’s Oil Finds a New Home
India’s energy appetite is voracious. As one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, India is set to increase its imports even further as its refining capacity expands in the second half of 2025. For Alberta—Canada’s largest oil-producing province—this is a game-changer. Traditionally, nearly all Canadian oil exports have gone to the U.S., but new infrastructure and trade routes are now making it possible for Canadian crude, especially from Alberta’s oil sands, to reach Indian refineries. This not only helps Canada diversify its energy exports but also offers Indian refiners a reliable and competitively priced alternative, enhancing energy security for both nations.
Canadian Brands: Unlocking India’s Consumer Market
The Indian market is not just about raw commodities; it’s a fertile ground for Canadian consumer brands. Tim Hortons, the iconic coffee chain, has experienced “phenomenal” growth since entering India, expanding rapidly across major cities with plans for dozens of new outlets annually. The brand’s ability to adapt to local tastes—offering eggless and vegetarian options—demonstrates the potential for Canadian companies that are willing to innovate for the Indian consumer. McCain Foods, another Canadian giant, has similarly carved out a significant share of India’s frozen food market, with ambitions to double its business and expand its product portfolio to suit local preferences. These success stories highlight the vast, untapped potential for Canadian brands in India’s burgeoning middle class.
A Strategic Moment for Both Nations
This G7 summit is more than a diplomatic gathering—it’s a crossroads for Canada-India relations. After years of tension, the election of Prime Minister Mark Carney and the invitation to Prime Minister Modi signal a pragmatic reset. Both nations are vibrant democracies bound by shared values and a commitment to rule of law. As they seek to deepen economic ties, the benefits are clear: Canada gains access to one of the world’s fastest-growing markets, while India secures a reliable partner for its food and energy needs.
Conclusion: Building a Foundation for Shared Prosperity
The case for a stronger Canada-India partnership is compelling. From agriculture to energy, from consumer brands to advanced technology, the complementarities are vast and growing. As the world’s economic and geopolitical center of gravity shifts eastward, Canada cannot afford to overlook India’s potential. The G7 summit offers a rare opportunity to lay the groundwork for a future where both nations thrive—together.
The time to act is now. By embracing India as a strategic partner, Canada can secure its place in the new global order—diversified, resilient, and ready for the opportunities of the 21st century.
